ForecastLast updated Aug 6, 2:52 PM
Democrats
Republicans
We simulated the results for every state in the Senate. Each state is shaded by the party favored to win and how safe the race is. Hover a state to see an overview of its forecast, and select it to view the full race.
We ran 1,000,000 simulations of the 2026 Senate election. Each bar represents the number of simulations resulting in a specific seat margin between Republicans and Democrats.
Below is a list of all 35 Senate forecasts Decision Desk HQ is tracking in the 2026 election. States are listed in order of competitiveness, with the closest races at the top.
| State | DemocraticRepublican | Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Maine | 50% | Toss Up |
| Texas | 52% | Toss Up |
| Alaska | 54% | Toss Up |
| Michigan | 55% | Toss Up |
| Iowa | 58% | Toss Up |
| Ohio | 58% | Toss Up |
| North Carolina | 75% | Likely D |
| Georgia | 78% | Likely D |
| Florida | 79% | Likely R |
| New Hampshire | 80% | Likely D |
| Kansas | 84% | Likely R |
| Nebraska | 86% | Likely R |
| South Carolina | 88% | Likely R |
| Minnesota | 89% | Likely D |
| Montana | 90% | Likely R |
| Louisiana | 91% | Likely R |
| New Jersey | 95% | Safe D |
| Mississippi | 95% | Safe R |
| Virginia | 95% | Safe D |
| Illinois | 95% | Safe D |
| New Mexico | 96% | Safe D |
| Oregon | 97% | Safe D |
| Kentucky | 97% | Safe R |
| Colorado | 97% | Safe D |
| Alabama | 97% | Safe R |
| Rhode Island | 97% | Safe D |
| Oklahoma | 98% | Safe R |
| Tennessee | 98% | Safe R |
| Idaho | 98% | Safe R |
| Arkansas | 98% | Safe R |
| South Dakota | 98% | Safe R |
| Delaware | 98% | Safe D |
| West Virginia | 99% | Safe R |
| Massachusetts | 99% | Safe D |
| Wyoming | 99% | Safe R |
