G2026 Montana US Senate
G2026 Montana US Senate
Forecasted Win Probability
Kurt Alme
Seth Bodnar
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 55% fundamentals, 20% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Kurt Alme | 51.00% |
| Seth Bodnar | 49.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Kurt Alme | 44.00% |
| Alani Bankhead | 40.00% |
| Kyle Austin | 13.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Kurt Alme | 36.00% |
| Seth Bodnar | 24.00% |
| Alani Bankhead | 22.00% |
| Other Option | 18.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kurt Alme | $1,984,861 | $534,142 | $619,496 | $217,614 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Kurt Alme | $1,184,127 | $261,875 | $619,496 | $200,000 | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
 Alani Bankhead | $58,829 | $37,011 | $3,360,014 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Alani Bankhead | $23,884 | $11,307 | $2,248,573 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
