G2026 Michigan US Senate
G2026 Michigan US Senate
Forecasted Win Probability
Abdul El-Sayed
Mike Rogers
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 39% fundamentals, 36% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Haley Stevens | 44.00% |
| Mike Rogers | 42.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Mike Rogers | 42.00% |
| Abdul El-Sayed | 41.00% |
| Other Option | 17.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Haley Stevens | 45.50% |
| Mike Rogers | 44.70% |
| Other Option | 9.90% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mike Rogers | $23,959,718 | $19,544,730 | $4,748,034 | $2,500 | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/15/2026 |
| Mike Rogers | $23,644,005 | $17,978,427 | $3,431,415 | $2,500 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Mike Rogers | $20,749,782 | $16,541,754 | $3,431,415 | $2,500 | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
 Abdul El-Sayed | $14,528,336 | $11,975,573 | $1,952,661 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/15/2026 |
