G2026 New Mexico US Senate
G2026 New Mexico US Senate
Forecasted Win Probability
Ben Ray Lujan*
Larry Marker
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
Democrat | 45.50% | -1.2% | +0.3% |
Republican | 39.80% | -1.1% | -0.5% |
| Democrat +5.7% | |||
 | |||
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ben Ray Lujan | $8,277,478 | $3,960,048 | -$2,171 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Ben Ray Lujan | $7,669,989 | $3,583,405 | -$2,171 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
| Larry E Marker | $33,525 | $21,675 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
