G2026 Texas US Senate
G2026 Texas US Senate
Forecasted Win Probability
Ken Paxton
James Talarico
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 43% fundamentals, 32% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for Texas US Senate were being held today, who would voters choose?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
 James Talarico | 48.00% | – | +2.2% |
 Ken Paxton | 45.40% | – | +0.5% |
| Talarico +2.6% | |||
 | |||
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico | $68,555,930 | $47,007,775 | $4,143,535 | $763,010 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| James Talarico | $40,284,109 | $30,425,244 | $4,110,179 | $563,010 | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
| Ken Paxton | $9,251,700 | $7,492,915 | $1,286,991 | $26,905,075 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Ken Paxton | $7,605,209 | $5,257,746 | $502,244 | $19,891,820 | PRE-RUN-OFF | 5/6/2026 |
