G2026 Alaska US Senate
G2026 Alaska US SenateForecasted Win Probability
Democrats
Republicans
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 59% fundamentals, 16% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Dan Sullivan | 44.00% |
| Mary Peltola | 44.00% |
| Other Option | 12.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Mary Peltola | 49.40% |
| Dan Sullivan | 44.20% |
| Gerald Heikes | 3.70% |
| Dustin Darden | 2.70% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Mary Peltola | 48.40% |
| Dan Sullivan | 43.80% |
| Dustin Darden | 5.10% |
| Gerald Heikes | 2.70% |