G2026 Iowa US Senate
G2026 Iowa US Senate
Forecasted Win Probability
Ashley Hinson
Josh Turek
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 57% fundamentals, 18% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Josh Turek | 50.00% |
| Ashley Hinson | 46.00% |
| Other Option | 4.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Ashley Hinson | 46.00% |
| Josh Turek | 44.00% |
| Other Option | 9.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Ashley Hinson | 46.00% |
| Josh Turek | 44.20% |
| Other Option | 9.80% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ashley Hinson | $23,009,662 | $16,375,336 | $1,165,359 | $536,861 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Ashley Hinson | $20,949,833 | $15,074,985 | $975,316 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
 Josh Turek | $6,276,527 | $3,914,213 | $9,775,355 | $11,166 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Josh Turek | $3,463,099 | $2,736,689 | $9,767,625 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
| Joni K Ernst | $1,790,133 | $625,479 | $8,133 | $9 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2025 |
| Nathan Sage | $709,398 | $375,015 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2025 |
