G2026 Florida US Senate
G2026 Florida US Senate
Forecasted Win Probability
Republicans
Democrats
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 41% fundamentals, 34% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for Florida US Senate were being held today, who would voters choose?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
Ashley Moody | 47.30% | – | +0.9% |
Alexander Vindman | 39.70% | – | -2.1% |
| Moody +7.6% | |||
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