G2026 North Carolina US Senate
G2026 North Carolina US Senate
Forecasted Win Probability
Roy Cooper
Michael Whatley
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 30% fundamentals, 45% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for North Carolina Senate were being held today, who would voters choose?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
 Roy Cooper | 51.20% | – | +3.3% |
 Michael Whatley | 44.10% | – | +5.6% |
| Cooper +7.1% | |||
 | |||
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Cooper | $34,975,789 | $14,258,222 | $63,348 | $1,231,592 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Roy Cooper | $26,822,373 | $8,366,910 | $41,232 | $1,120,383 | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
| Michael Whatley | $11,270,971 | $7,809,272 | $3,736,593 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Michael Whatley | $8,408,718 | $5,880,375 | $3,695,153 | - | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
