Forecasted Win Probability
Pete Ricketts*
Dan Osborn
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 59% fundamentals, 16% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Pete Ricketts | 52.00% |
| Dan Osborn | 48.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Dan Osborn | 46.00% |
| Pete Ricketts | 42.00% |
| Other Option | 11.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Dan Osborn | 47.00% |
| Pete Ricketts | 47.00% |
| Other Option | 5.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dan Osborn | $20,881,278 | $18,459,791 | $123 | $110,000 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Dan Osborn | $18,985,642 | $17,850,490 | $123 | $10,000 | PRE-PRIMARY | 4/22/2026 |
 Pete Ricketts | $17,109,735 | $10,198,447 | $783,915 | $431 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Pete Ricketts | $10,742,877 | $9,670,025 | $779,279 | $431 | PRE-PRIMARY | 4/22/2026 |
