G2026 Oregon US Senate
G2026 Oregon US Senate
Forecasted Win Probability
Jeff Merkley*
David Smith
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 76% fundamentals and 24% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
Democrat | 45.50% | -1.2% | +0.3% |
Republican | 39.80% | -1.1% | -0.5% |
| Democrat +5.7% | |||
 | |||
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jeff Merkley | $7,893,849 | $4,871,007 | $129 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Jeff Merkley | $7,297,473 | $4,617,386 | $129 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 4/29/2026 |
 David Smith | $120,760 | $91,781 | $25,000 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| David Smith | $48,166 | $16,108 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 4/29/2026 |
