Democrats are safe to win Virginia

Last updated Aug 6, 2:48 PM

Democrats

95%

Probability

Republicans

Probability

Safe Democratic

Generic BallotD+5.7

Projected MarginD+17

Trend—

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals75%

Markets25%

Recent Polls

The Public Sentiment Institute

Jun 12 – 16996 LVWarner +18.10%

Candidate	Result
Mark Warner	50.80%
Kim Farington	32.70%
Other Option	13.40%
Mark Moran	3.10%

Virginia Commonwealth University L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs

Dec 18, 2024 – Jan 15, 2025806 AdultsWarner +7.00%

Candidate	Result
Mark Warner	45.00%
Glenn Youngkin	38.00%
Other Option	17.00%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Mark Robert Warner	$25,160,578	$9,434,263	$89	-	PRE-PRIMARY	7/15/2026
Mark Robert Warner	$24,923,005	$9,156,701	$89	-	JULY QUARTERLY	6/30/2026
Mark Robert Warner	$21,990,910	$7,774,286	$89	-	APRIL QUARTERLY	3/31/2026
Bert K Mizusawa	$376,213	$323,249	-	-	PRE-PRIMARY	7/15/2026
Bert K Mizusawa	$341,219	$289,799	-	-	JULY QUARTERLY	6/30/2026
Bert K Mizusawa	$192,041	$136,636	-	-	APRIL QUARTERLY	3/31/2026

DDHQ Analytics

Markets

Watchlist

Social Media

Democrats 95%

Democrats are safe to win Virginia

Forecast Components

Recent Polls

FEC Data