G2026 Maine US Senate
G2026 Maine US Senate
Forecasted Win Probability
Susan Collins*
Troy Jackson
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 64% fundamentals, 11% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for Maine US Senate were being held today, who would voters choose?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
 Susan Collins | 48.10% | – | – |
Graham Platner | 46.90% | – | – |
| Collins +1.2% | |||
 | |||
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graham Platner | $21,050,419 | $19,287,361 | $372,440 | $9,230,161 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Susan Collins | $18,930,078 | $9,187,155 | $2,582,974 | $65,453 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Graham Platner | $16,312,222 | $14,131,391 | $4,343 | $4,014,000 | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/20/2026 |
| Susan Collins | $14,925,296 | $6,547,574 | $2,042,369 | $15,453 | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/20/2026 |
