Jeff Hurd is likely to win Colorado's 3rd District

Last updated Nov 4, 12:00 AM

Jeff Hurd

88%

Probability

Adam Frisch

12%

Probability

Likely Republican

PVIR+7

Generic BallotD+7.4

Projected MarginR+8

Trend—

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 100% fundamentals. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals100%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Sep 17, 3:57 PM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	48.30%	-0.1%	+1.6%
Republican	40.90%	-0.4%	+0.5%
Democrat +7.4%
Democrat +7.4%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Adam Frisch	$17,188,573	$17,314,502	$603,516	$98,409	YEAR-END	12/31/2024
Jeffrey Hurd	$2,769,794	$2,759,491	$1,565,586	$98,636	YEAR-END	12/31/2024

DDHQ Analytics

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2024 Colorado US House 3

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Jeff Hurd 88%

Jeff Hurd is likely to win Colorado's 3rd District

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot

FEC Data