Republicans are likely to win Washington's 5th District

Last updated Aug 6, 2:48 PM

Republicans

91%

Probability

Democrats

Probability

Likely Republican

Generic BallotD+5.7

Projected MarginR+16

Trend 3% : 1 WEEK

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals75%

Markets25%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Aug 5, 10:26 AM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	45.50%	-1.2%	+0.3%
Republican	39.80%	-1.1%	-0.5%
Democrat +5.7%
Democrat +5.7%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Michael James Baumgartner	$1,738,226	$976,007	-	$13,395	PRE-PRIMARY	7/15/2026
Michael James Baumgartner	$1,709,514	$816,197	-	-	JULY QUARTERLY	6/30/2026
Michael James Baumgartner	$1,413,237	$632,015	-	-	APRIL QUARTERLY	3/31/2026
Carmela Conroy	$396,217	$334,896	-	-	PRE-PRIMARY	7/15/2026
Carmela Conroy	$387,475	$232,722	-	-	JULY QUARTERLY	6/30/2026
Carmela Conroy	$300,714	$164,611	-	-	APRIL QUARTERLY	3/31/2026

DDHQ Analytics

Markets

Watchlist

Social Media

Republicans 91%

Republicans are likely to win Washington's 5th District

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot

FEC Data