Republicans are likely to win Virginia's 5th District

Last updated Aug 6, 2:48 PM

Republicans

78%

Probability

Democrats

22%

Probability

Likely Republican

Generic BallotD+5.7

Projected MarginR+6

Trend 3% : 1 WEEK

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals75%

Markets25%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Aug 5, 10:26 AM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	45.50%	-1.2%	+0.3%
Republican	39.80%	-1.1%	-0.5%
Democrat +5.7%
Democrat +5.7%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Thomas Perriello	$2,140,402	$629,110	-	-	PRE-PRIMARY	7/15/2026
Thomas Perriello	$2,095,712	$558,771	-	-	JULY QUARTERLY	6/30/2026
John McGuire	$1,740,534	$1,243,349	-	-	PRE-PRIMARY	7/15/2026
John McGuire	$1,705,665	$1,167,641	-	-	JULY QUARTERLY	6/30/2026
Thomas Perriello	$1,402,032	$282,395	-	-	APRIL QUARTERLY	3/31/2026

DDHQ Analytics

Markets

Watchlist

Social Media

Republicans 78%

Republicans are likely to win Virginia's 5th District

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot

FEC Data