G2026 Texas US House 31
G2026 Texas US House 31
Forecasted Win Probability
John Carter*
Justin Early
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
Democrat | 45.50% | -1.2% | +0.3% |
Republican | 39.80% | -1.1% | -0.5% |
| Democrat +5.7% | |||
 | |||
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 John Carter | $1,419,042 | $1,289,654 | $55,054 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| John Carter | $1,347,562 | $1,142,503 | $55,054 | - | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
 Justin Early | $123,522 | $106,122 | $8,507 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Justin Early | $89,298 | $81,616 | - | - | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
