G2026 Texas US House 23
G2026 Texas US House 23
Forecasted Win Probability
Brandon Herrera
Katy Stout
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Brandon Herrera | 42.00% |
| Katy Stout | 40.00% |
| Other Option | 18.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brandon Herrera | $1,937,719 | $1,636,736 | $43,933 | $148,074 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Brandon Herrera | $1,522,558 | $1,225,114 | $43,038 | $148,074 | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
| Katy Padilla Stout | $484,915 | $313,542 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Katy Padilla Stout | $238,441 | $92,430 | - | - | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
