G2026 Texas US House 20
G2026 Texas US House 20
Forecasted Win Probability
Joaquin Castro*
Edgardo Baez
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
Democrat | 45.50% | -1.2% | +0.3% |
Republican | 39.80% | -1.1% | -0.5% |
| Democrat +5.7% | |||
 | |||
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Joaquin Castro | $514,776 | $499,054 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Joaquin Castro | $397,397 | $365,689 | - | - | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
 Edgardo Baez | $48,536 | $27,073 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Edgardo Baez | $32,503 | $27,073 | - | - | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
