G2026 Texas US House 19
G2026 Texas US House 19
Forecasted Win Probability
Tom Sell
Kyle Rable
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 77% fundamentals and 23% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
Democrat | 45.50% | -1.2% | +0.3% |
Republican | 39.80% | -1.1% | -0.5% |
| Democrat +5.7% | |||
 | |||
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tom Sell | $2,143,025 | $1,758,259 | $1,319,688 | $80,633 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Tom Sell | $2,014,494 | $1,343,689 | $1,301,024 | - | PRE-RUN-OFF | 5/6/2026 |
 Kyle Rable | $31,276 | $20,811 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Kyle Rable | $21,086 | $12,557 | - | - | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
