G2026 Texas US House 18
G2026 Texas US House 18
Forecasted Win Probability
Christian Menefee*
Ronald Whitfield
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 89% fundamentals and 11% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
Democrat | 45.50% | -1.2% | +0.3% |
Republican | 39.80% | -1.1% | -0.5% |
| Democrat +5.7% | |||
 | |||
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Christian Menefee | $3,637,579 | $3,481,563 | $7,065,646 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Christian Menefee | $3,463,829 | $3,145,794 | $7,064,854 | - | PRE-RUN-OFF | 5/6/2026 |
