Republicans are likely to win Tennessee's 9th District

Last updated Aug 6, 2:48 PM

Republicans

94%

Probability

Democrats

Probability

Likely Republican

Potential Flip

Generic BallotD+5.7

Projected MarginR+15

Trend—

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals75%

Markets25%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Aug 5, 10:26 AM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	45.50%	-1.2%	+0.3%
Republican	39.80%	-1.1%	-0.5%
Democrat +5.7%
Democrat +5.7%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Justin J. Pearson	$2,344,947	$1,500,214	$1,234	-	PRE-PRIMARY	7/17/2026
Justin J. Pearson	$2,201,980	$1,403,052	$1,234	-	JULY QUARTERLY	6/30/2026
Justin J. Pearson	$1,106,297	$718,434	$1,234	-	APRIL QUARTERLY	3/31/2026
Charlotte Bergmann	$66,902	$58,595	-	-	PRE-PRIMARY	7/17/2026
Charlotte Bergmann	$61,562	$49,958	-	-	JULY QUARTERLY	6/30/2026
Charlotte Bergmann	$11,735	$7,446	-	-	APRIL QUARTERLY	3/31/2026

DDHQ Analytics

Markets

Watchlist

Social Media

Republicans 94%

Republicans are likely to win Tennessee's 9th District

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot

FEC Data