Republicans are safe to win Tennessee's 7th District

Last updated Aug 6, 2:48 PM

Republicans

96%

Probability

Democrats

Probability

Safe Republican

Generic BallotD+5.7

Projected MarginR+16

Trend—

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals75%

Markets25%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Aug 5, 10:26 AM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	45.50%	-1.2%	+0.3%
Republican	39.80%	-1.1%	-0.5%
Democrat +5.7%
Democrat +5.7%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Matthew Robert Van Epps	$2,300,690	$2,092,736	$2,460,784	$1,652,804	PRE-PRIMARY	7/17/2026
Matthew Robert Van Epps	$2,262,074	$1,985,567	$2,460,784	$1,652,804	JULY QUARTERLY	6/30/2026
Matthew Robert Van Epps	$1,982,057	$1,846,902	$2,460,784	$1,652,804	APRIL QUARTERLY	3/31/2026
Darden Hunter Copeland	$868,615	$789,926	-	-	PRE-PRIMARY	7/17/2026
Darden Hunter Copeland	$794,111	$717,223	-	-	JULY QUARTERLY	6/30/2026
Darden Hunter Copeland	$587,800	$495,603	-	-	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	9/30/2025

DDHQ Analytics

Markets

Watchlist

Social Media

Republicans 96%

Republicans are safe to win Tennessee's 7th District

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot

FEC Data