G2026 Pennsylvania US House 10
G2026 Pennsylvania US House 10
Forecasted Win Probability
ForecastLast updated Aug 6, 2:48 PM
Janelle Stelson
Scott Perry*
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 68% fundamentals, 7% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Janelle Stelson | 51.00% |
| Scott Perry | 45.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Generic Democrat | 49.00% |
| Scott Perry | 42.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Janelle Stelson | 46.00% |
| Scott Perry | 43.00% |
| Other Option | 11.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Janelle Stelson | $6,364,069 | $1,900,667 | $15,073 | $15,496 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Scott Perry | $5,194,925 | $2,430,869 | $99,558 | $48,677 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Janelle Stelson | $4,691,753 | $1,357,723 | $15,073 | $15,477 | PRE-PRIMARY | 4/29/2026 |
| Scott Perry | $4,415,918 | $2,156,941 | $99,558 | $40,113 | PRE-PRIMARY | 4/29/2026 |
