G2026 Oregon US House 1
G2026 Oregon US House 1
Forecasted Win Probability
Suzanne Bonamici*
Barbara Kahl
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 83% fundamentals and 17% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
Democrat | 45.50% | -1.2% | +0.3% |
Republican | 39.80% | -1.1% | -0.5% |
| Democrat +5.7% | |||
 | |||
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Suzanne Bonamici | $816,770 | $790,299 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Suzanne Bonamici | $640,072 | $640,488 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 4/29/2026 |
 Barbara Kahl | $4,466 | $3,555 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Barbara Kahl | $1,191 | $491 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 4/29/2026 |
