G2026 North Carolina US House 8
G2026 North Carolina US House 8
Forecasted Win Probability
Mark Harris*
Colby Watson
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
Democrat | 45.50% | -1.2% | +0.3% |
Republican | 39.80% | -1.1% | -0.5% |
| Democrat +5.7% | |||
 | |||
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mark Harris | $1,019,134 | $608,814 | $5,287 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Mark Harris | $749,386 | $457,380 | $5,287 | - | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
 Colby Watson | $39,569 | $37,232 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Colby Watson | $29,102 | $27,271 | - | - | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
