G2026 North Carolina US House 1
G2026 North Carolina US House 1
Forecasted Win Probability
ForecastLast updated Aug 6, 2:48 PM
Laurie Buckhout
Don Davis*
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Don Davis | 45.00% |
| Laurie Buckhout | 41.00% |
| Tom Bailey | 8.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Don Davis | 42.00% |
| Laurie Buckhout | 39.00% |
| Other Option | 10.00% |
| Tom Bailey | 9.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Don Davis | $4,287,386 | $987,862 | $120,000 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Laurie Buckhout | $3,668,391 | $1,871,534 | $829,003 | $42,116 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Don Davis | $3,232,086 | $622,857 | - | - | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
| Laurie Buckhout | $2,618,344 | $1,167,529 | $920,003 | $42,116 | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
