G2026 New York US House 22
G2026 New York US House 22
Forecasted Win Probability
John Mannion
Kailee Buller
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
Democrat | 45.50% | -1.2% | +0.3% |
Republican | 39.80% | -1.1% | -0.5% |
| Democrat +5.7% | |||
 | |||
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 John Mannion | $2,694,739 | $979,983 | $1,786 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| John Mannion | $2,420,032 | $904,629 | $1,786 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 6/3/2026 |
 Kailee Buller | $267,339 | $80,751 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Kailee Buller | $241,523 | $47,217 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 6/3/2026 |
