Forecasted Win Probability
Anthony Constantino
Blake Gendebien
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 66% fundamentals, 9% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Anthony Constantino | 48.00% |
| Blake Gendebien | 43.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Anthony Constantino | 47.00% |
| Blake Gendebien | 44.00% |
| Other Option | 9.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Anthony Constantino | 50.00% |
| Blake Gendebien | 40.00% |
| Other Option | 10.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Anthony Constantino | $9,460,254 | $8,730,755 | - | $82,530 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Anthony Constantino | $7,453,187 | $6,633,205 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 6/3/2026 |
 Blake Gendebien | $5,461,528 | $3,091,285 | $40,478 | $40,000 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Blake Gendebien | $5,012,014 | $2,977,475 | $39,826 | $40,000 | PRE-PRIMARY | 6/3/2026 |
