G2026 New York US House 19
G2026 New York US House 19
Forecasted Win Probability
Josh Riley
Peter Oberacker
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 77% fundamentals and 23% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
Democrat | 45.50% | -1.2% | +0.3% |
Republican | 39.80% | -1.1% | -0.5% |
| Democrat +5.7% | |||
 | |||
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Josh Riley | $4,825,666 | $1,703,032 | $6,492 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Josh Riley | $4,336,327 | $1,484,272 | $5,452 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 6/3/2026 |
 Peter Oberacker | $1,237,179 | $844,311 | - | $666 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Peter Oberacker | $956,745 | $704,594 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 6/3/2026 |
