G2026 New York US House 17
G2026 New York US House 17
Forecasted Win Probability
Cait Conley
Michael Lawler
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 68% fundamentals, 7% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Michael Lawler | 50.00% |
| Cait Conley | 45.00% |
| Other Option | 5.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Cait Conley | 51.00% |
| Michael Lawler | 45.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Other | 38.00% |
| Cait Conley | 29.00% |
| Beth Davidson | 22.00% |
| Effie Phillips-Staley | 6.00% |
| Mike Sacks | 4.00% |
| John Cappello | 2.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cait Conley | $4,317,457 | $2,998,301 | $508,978 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Cait Conley | $3,258,198 | $2,317,224 | $358,978 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 6/3/2026 |
