G2026 New Jersey US House 5
G2026 New Jersey US House 5
Forecasted Win Probability
Josh Gottheimer*
Sean Kirrane
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 90% fundamentals and 10% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
Democrat | 45.50% | -1.2% | +0.3% |
Republican | 39.80% | -1.1% | -0.5% |
| Democrat +5.7% | |||
 | |||
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Josh Gottheimer | $4,765,145 | $12,704,564 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Josh Gottheimer | $3,468,842 | $12,628,178 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
 Sean Kirrane | $55,656 | $47,622 | $8,005 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Sean Kirrane | $40,420 | $34,848 | $8,005 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
