Forecasted Win Probability
Troy Downing*
Brian Miller
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Troy Downing | $2,127,927 | $1,588,993 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Troy Downing | $1,794,757 | $1,512,717 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
 Brian Miller | $19,174 | $14,573 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Brian Miller | $16,195 | $9,405 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
