Forecasted Win Probability
Aaron Flint
Sam Forstag
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Sam Forstag | 45.00% |
| Aaron Flint | 43.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Aaron Flint | 42.00% |
| Sam Forstag | 41.00% |
| Nick Sheedy | 5.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Aaron Flint | 44.00% |
| Sam Forstag | 44.00% |
| Other Option | 6.00% |
| Nick Sheedy | 5.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sam Forstag | $1,382,873 | $832,794 | $239,520 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Aaron Flint | $1,303,394 | $801,193 | $1,182,592 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Sam Forstag | $694,570 | $533,132 | $239,520 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
| Aaron Flint | $684,251 | $299,577 | $956,375 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
