G2026 Michigan US House 8
G2026 Michigan US House 8
Forecasted Win Probability
Kristen McDonald Rivet
Thomas Smith
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 78% fundamentals and 22% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
Democrat | 45.50% | -1.2% | +0.3% |
Republican | 39.80% | -1.1% | -0.5% |
| Democrat +5.7% | |||
 | |||
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kristen McDonald Rivet | $5,644,876 | $1,407,808 | $313 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/15/2026 |
| Kristen McDonald Rivet | $5,540,175 | $1,343,229 | $313 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Kristen McDonald Rivet | $4,384,972 | $966,936 | $313 | - | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
| Amir Hassan | $727,343 | $622,842 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/15/2026 |
| Amir Hassan | $687,295 | $550,608 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Amir Hassan | $414,719 | $349,256 | - | - | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
