Democrats are safe to win Massachusetts's 4th District

Last updated Aug 6, 2:48 PM

Democrats

99%

Probability

Republicans

Probability

Safe Democratic

Generic BallotD+5.7

Projected MarginD+24

Trend—

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals75%

Markets25%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Aug 5, 10:26 AM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	45.50%	-1.2%	+0.3%
Republican	39.80%	-1.1%	-0.5%
Democrat +5.7%
Democrat +5.7%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Jake Auchincloss	$3,535,358	$1,109,981	-	-	JULY QUARTERLY	6/30/2026
Jake Auchincloss	$2,915,615	$914,678	-	-	APRIL QUARTERLY	3/31/2026
PHD Thomas Stalcup	$25,534	$24,028	-	-	JULY QUARTERLY	6/30/2026

DDHQ Analytics

Markets

Watchlist

Social Media

Democrats >99%

Democrats are safe to win Massachusetts's 4th District

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot

FEC Data