G2026 Maryland US House 2
G2026 Maryland US House 2
Forecasted Win Probability
John Olszewski
Dave Wallace
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 80% fundamentals and 20% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
Democrat | 45.50% | -1.2% | +0.3% |
Republican | 39.80% | -1.1% | -0.5% |
| Democrat +5.7% | |||
 | |||
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 John Olszewski | $1,040,390 | $592,706 | $10 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| John Olszewski | $962,221 | $516,083 | $10 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 6/3/2026 |
| David Drain Wallace II | $20,194 | $17,122 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| David Drain Wallace II | $16,478 | $15,965 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 6/3/2026 |
