Andrew Harris is safe to win Maryland's 1st District

Last updated Aug 6, 2:48 PM

Andrew Harris

95%

Probability

Dan Schwartz

Probability

Safe Republican

Generic BallotD+5.7

Projected MarginR+16

Trend—

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals75%

Markets25%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Aug 5, 10:26 AM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	45.50%	-1.2%	+0.3%
Republican	39.80%	-1.1%	-0.5%
Democrat +5.7%
Democrat +5.7%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Andrew P Harris	$2,319,668	$1,221,001	$7,629	$14,398	JULY QUARTERLY	6/30/2026
Andrew P Harris	$2,099,077	$1,124,553	$7,629	-	PRE-PRIMARY	6/3/2026
Daniel Schwartz	$695,170	$622,595	-	-	JULY QUARTERLY	6/30/2026
Daniel Schwartz	$617,914	$586,520	-	-	PRE-PRIMARY	6/3/2026

DDHQ Analytics

Markets

Watchlist

Social Media

Andrew Harris 95%

Andrew Harris is safe to win Maryland's 1st District

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot

FEC Data