G2026 Maine US House 2
G2026 Maine US House 2
Forecasted Win Probability
Paul LePage
Matthew Dunlap
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Matt Dunlap | 49.00% |
| Paul LePage | 48.00% |
| Other Option | 3.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Paul LePage | 52.00% |
| Jordan Wood | 45.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Paul LePage | 47.00% |
| Matthew Dunlap | 46.00% |
| Other Option | 6.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Paul LePage | $2,458,202 | $802,191 | $6,549 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Paul LePage | $1,957,600 | $743,272 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/20/2026 |
 Matthew Dunlap | $1,205,432 | $976,783 | $50,606 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
