Democrats are likely to win Kansas's 3rd District

Last updated Aug 6, 2:48 PM

Democrats

88%

Probability

Republicans

12%

Probability

Likely Democratic

Generic BallotD+5.7

Projected MarginD+9

Trend 2% : 1 WEEK

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals75%

Markets25%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Aug 5, 10:26 AM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	45.50%	-1.2%	+0.3%
Republican	39.80%	-1.1%	-0.5%
Democrat +5.7%
Democrat +5.7%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Sharice Davids	$3,690,440	$2,369,484	-	-	PRE-PRIMARY	7/15/2026
Sharice Davids	$3,594,654	$2,301,966	-	-	JULY QUARTERLY	6/30/2026
Sharice Davids	$2,937,808	$1,905,382	-	-	APRIL QUARTERLY	3/31/2026
Eric Jenkins	$18,916	$6,633	-	-	PRE-PRIMARY	7/15/2026

DDHQ Analytics

Markets

Watchlist

Social Media

Democrats 88%

Democrats are likely to win Kansas's 3rd District

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot

FEC Data