Republicans are likely to win Kansas's 2nd District

Last updated Aug 6, 2:48 PM

Republicans

93%

Probability

Democrats

Probability

Likely Republican

Generic BallotD+5.7

Projected MarginR+12

Trend 2% : 1 WEEK

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals75%

Markets25%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Aug 5, 10:26 AM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	45.50%	-1.2%	+0.3%
Republican	39.80%	-1.1%	-0.5%
Democrat +5.7%
Democrat +5.7%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Derek Schmidt	$1,457,605	$556,938	-	-	PRE-PRIMARY	7/15/2026
Derek Schmidt	$1,404,518	$427,227	-	-	JULY QUARTERLY	6/30/2026
Derek Schmidt	$989,112	$339,810	-	-	APRIL QUARTERLY	3/31/2026
Don Coover	$758,823	$514,537	-	-	PRE-PRIMARY	7/15/2026
Don Coover	$727,521	$486,002	-	-	JULY QUARTERLY	6/30/2026
Don Coover	$517,670	$332,707	-	-	APRIL QUARTERLY	3/31/2026

DDHQ Analytics

Markets

Watchlist

Social Media

Republicans 93%

Republicans are likely to win Kansas's 2nd District

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot

FEC Data