G2026 Iowa US House 3
G2026 Iowa US House 3
Forecasted Win Probability
Sarah Garriott
Zach Nunn*
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Sarah Trone Garriott | 47.00% |
| Zach Nunn | 40.00% |
| Other | 12.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Jennifer Konfrst | 50.00% |
| Zach Nunn | 42.00% |
| Other Option | 8.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Jennifer Konfrst | 44.00% |
| Zach Nunn | 44.00% |
| Other Option | 12.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Trone Garriott | $5,293,773 | $1,434,089 | $32 | $6,461 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Zach Nunn | $4,869,249 | $1,353,713 | $6,549 | $2,394 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Zach Nunn | $4,146,939 | $1,039,267 | - | $2,394 | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
| Sarah Trone Garriott | $3,892,746 | $1,186,605 | $32 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
