G2026 Indiana US House 3
G2026 Indiana US House 3
Forecasted Win Probability
Marlin Stutzman*
Kelly Thompson
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 80% fundamentals and 20% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
Democrat | 45.50% | -1.2% | +0.3% |
Republican | 39.80% | -1.1% | -0.5% |
| Democrat +5.7% | |||
 | |||
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marlin Stutzman | $839,565 | $786,959 | $15 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Marlin Stutzman | $705,870 | $681,804 | $15 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 4/15/2026 |
 Kelly Thompson | $136,340 | $130,301 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Kelly Thompson | $92,249 | $84,576 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 4/15/2026 |
