G2026 Illinois US House 16
G2026 Illinois US House 16
Forecasted Win Probability
Darin LaHood*
Paul Nolley
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
Democrat | 45.50% | -1.2% | +0.3% |
Republican | 39.80% | -1.1% | -0.5% |
| Democrat +5.7% | |||
 | |||
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Darin LaHood | $3,672,739 | $2,445,401 | - | $1,041 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Darin LaHood | $3,113,808 | $1,952,628 | - | $1,041 | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
 Paul Nolley | $415,748 | $185,607 | $10 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Paul Nolley | $236,891 | $77,336 | $10 | - | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
