Forecasted Win Probability
John Cowan
Chris Harden
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Chris Harden | 42.00% |
| John Cowan | 40.00% |
| Other Option | 16.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 John Cowan | $2,347,796 | $2,330,167 | $526,064 | $40,096 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| John Cowan | $2,145,885 | $1,938,597 | $451,878 | - | PRE-RUN-OFF | 5/27/2026 |
 Chris Harden | $76,330 | $63,995 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Chris Harden | $53,676 | $40,964 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 4/29/2026 |
