G2026 California US House 49
G2026 California US House 49
Forecasted Win Probability
Mike Levin*
Armen Kurdian
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 86% fundamentals and 14% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
Democrat | 45.50% | -1.2% | +0.3% |
Republican | 39.80% | -1.1% | -0.5% |
| Democrat +5.7% | |||
 | |||
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mike Levin | $3,164,023 | $2,015,523 | $530 | $4,552 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Mike Levin | $2,893,833 | $1,779,935 | $530 | $4,552 | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
 Armen Kurdian | $58,784 | $40,867 | $2,500 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Armen Kurdian | $23,196 | $15,779 | $2,500 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
