G2026 California US House 48
G2026 California US House 48
Forecasted Win Probability
Marni Wilpert
Jim Desmond
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Marni von Wilpert | 48.00% |
| Jim Desmond | 46.00% |
| Other Option | 6.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Ammar Campa-Najjar | 43.00% |
| Darrell Issa | 40.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jim Desmond | $2,258,836 | $1,028,804 | $66,354 | $336,407 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Marni Von Wilpert | $2,174,872 | $1,349,861 | $2,218,259 | $778,454 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Jim Desmond | $1,904,608 | $814,987 | $26,354 | $232,742 | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
| Marni Von Wilpert | $1,259,899 | $967,039 | $1,801,812 | $653,454 | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
