G2026 California US House 31
G2026 California US House 31
Forecasted Win Probability
Gil Cisneros*
Eric Ching
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 78% fundamentals and 22% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
Democrat | 45.50% | -1.2% | +0.3% |
Republican | 39.80% | -1.1% | -0.5% |
| Democrat +5.7% | |||
 | |||
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Gil Cisneros | $705,263 | $485,536 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Gil Cisneros | $565,877 | $426,004 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
 Eric Ching | $81,571 | $56,899 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
