G2026 California US House 26
G2026 California US House 26
Forecasted Win Probability
Jacqui Irwin
Sam Gallucci
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
Democrat | 45.50% | -1.2% | +0.3% |
Republican | 39.80% | -1.1% | -0.5% |
| Democrat +5.7% | |||
 | |||
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jacqui Irwin | $822,382 | $526,904 | $354,932 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Jacqui Irwin | $707,694 | $287,886 | $354,932 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
 Sam Gallucci | $377,078 | $343,397 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Sam Gallucci | $320,553 | $297,294 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
