G2026 California US House 23
G2026 California US House 23
Forecasted Win Probability
Jay Obernolte*
Tessa Hodge
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
Democrat | 45.50% | -1.2% | +0.3% |
Republican | 39.80% | -1.1% | -0.5% |
| Democrat +5.7% | |||
 | |||
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jay Obernolte | $1,455,868 | $809,486 | $259,682 | $18,690 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Jay Obernolte | $1,199,459 | $668,111 | $259,682 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
 Tessa Hodge | $79,499 | $69,262 | $851 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Tessa Hodge | $65,986 | $55,464 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
